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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by K-Man S View Post
    I have a referral code I can give you to get the $1000 off. I actually like autopilot for highway driving, I don't know that I would ever use full self driving even if activated, but the keeping me in the lane and auto passing and guided cruise are all nice to have on the highway. Definitely get the Tech package as Tesla just included more things in it! (Hurry before they take them back out Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?) The white interior is very nice, I like the midnight silver metallic more than the regular silver, but that's just personal preference. They didn't offer yellow so I bought ultra faded yellow also known as pearl white Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

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    The guy at the Tesla store told me you can add the phone holsters for $30. Tech package seems like it's worth it if you want the studio quality audio and you live in a city with a lot of air pollution. Not the case in norcal.

    Tesla is funny in that every 6 months they make the car cheaper and add more features. It pays to wait. The only looming cliff is the exhaustion of the tax credit.

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    What I took from this post...lots and lots of stops, agree with no rural area stops, I love the history of the inventor Mr. Tesla in the 20's against Edison, however I'm going to keep driving a gas sucking 310 hp Porsche 6 speed stick...with a history of James Dean in a 550 Spyder.... in my Box S .....drive a damn Porsche. Effing Tesla...go hug a tree.
    Last edited by Abaco24; 08-04-2017 at 10:35 PM.
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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by K-Man S View Post
    Not sure what else you still need me to answer here? If you take a cross country trip every month and want to do it as quickly as possible, then a Tesla is probably not for you.
    Your answers were fine. My questions were all directed to the extremes. If one just goes to work, car sits, drive home, plug in, done - then I'm sure its fine. Unfortunately I've reached that state in life where I just expect things to work, and if they don't, I'll dump it. Couple this with all of society wanting instant gratification, and I too have fallen into the trap, I would have zero patience for waiting any time more than I do know to fill up.

    The occasional stories the media highlights, car burning up, drivers stranding themselves, sell papers or get clicks. Don't really care about that. The comments above are more concern:

    never noticed how much power i consumed when i was driving in city

    This is a serious issue. Most people won't. Its no different than people who won't check their oil or do anything, until an idiot light goes on, and then they still ignore it.

    i was doing 65 with ac and wipers because it was raining

    This is real life. Now say its 20 degrees out, snowing, and you are going up hill, at night, with lights and heater on. Real life

    I had to wait a bit more than 5 hours to get my charge

    What's that old saying? "Patience my **** " Certainly not in an age of instant gratification.

    They were not lying about the range as long as you drive it at 35mph

    Statistics. Lies and ****** lies.


    I appreciate all the input and answers. Wish you guys well with the new vehicle. Keep us informed, good OR bad

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by K-Man S View Post
    2. Again I think you misunderstand Superchargers, those are precisely for where they are at, interstates, driving long distances, state to state.
    I'm only going to address this one point. San Diego is a top 10 city in the US and is located in San Diego County.
    There is only one Supercharger location in the county at a Qualcomm site (10155 Pacific Heights Blvd, San Diego, CA 92121) that is more than a mile from the closest interstate.

    Now maybe San Diego is at one corner of the US and has less 'pass through' traffic and so doesn't need to have as many conveniently located Superchargers.
    But if you visit San Diego with your Tesla and want to use a Supercharger before you leave, that's the only option right now.

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by 1028Caymn View Post
    I'm only going to address this one point. San Diego is a top 10 city in the US and is located in San Diego County.
    There is only one Supercharger location in the county at a Qualcomm site (10155 Pacific Heights Blvd, San Diego, CA 92121) that is more than a mile from the closest interstate.

    Now maybe San Diego is at one corner of the US and has less 'pass through' traffic and so doesn't need to have as many conveniently located Superchargers.
    But if you visit San Diego with your Tesla and want to use a Supercharger before you leave, that's the only option right now.
    Is it a problem to have the one location? There are usually anywhere from 8-12 stalls at a location. If you drove down to San Diego from somewhere else and weren't staying overnight at a hotel with a charger but instead wanted to turn around and drive back out of town the same day and you were low on charge then yes you'd go to that location to fill up before leaving.

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by K-Man S View Post
    Is it a problem to have the one location? There are usually anywhere from 8-12 stalls at a location. If you drove down to San Diego from somewhere else and weren't staying overnight at a hotel with a charger but instead wanted to turn around and drive back out of town the same day and you were low on charge then yes you'd go to that location to fill up before leaving.

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    Whether that one location is a problem is going to depend on the particular situation. I was pointing it out because the current situation in SD does not fit well with your definition of what Superchargers are and how they should be used.
    The Tesla website does include some "destination chargers" which seem to be mainly high end lodging that provide the chargers for "patrons". And none of those seem to be Superchargers.

    Your example of not "staying overnight at a hotel with a charger but instead wanted to turn around and drive back out of town the same day and you were low on charge then yes you'd go to that location to fill up before leaving" is just one example of a possible situation.
    I was pointing out that currently, ANY situation where one is in SD with a need for a Supercharger has only that one location to go to (and the number of charging stalls there doesn't change their location). And that location is not conveniently located near an interstate.
    This includes where one is in need of a Supercharger for driving long distances, state to state.

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    Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by 1028Caymn View Post
    I'm only going to address this one point. San Diego is a top 10 city in the US and is located in San Diego County.
    There is only one Supercharger location in the county at a Qualcomm site (10155 Pacific Heights Blvd, San Diego, CA 92121) that is more than a mile from the closest interstate.

    Now maybe San Diego is at one corner of the US and has less 'pass through' traffic and so doesn't need to have as many conveniently located Superchargers.
    But if you visit San Diego with your Tesla and want to use a Supercharger before you leave, that's the only option right now.
    This is changing as supercharger goes from "free" to a new product and business model for Tesla. They are building about 10 charging "gas stations" in downtown SF over the next year or two. The beautiful part is the touch screen tells you how much charge you absorbed, and bills your credit card on file. So there's no screen on the charger and stupid outdoor credit card reader. Hopefully no loud advertising either.

    There's only like 2 gas stations left downtown. All of them have been razed for apartments.



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    Last edited by westwest888; 08-05-2017 at 11:50 AM.

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by chows4us View Post
    Your answers were fine. My questions were all directed to the extremes. If one just goes to work, car sits, drive home, plug in, done - then I'm sure its fine. Unfortunately I've reached that state in life where I just expect things to work, and if they don't, I'll dump it. Couple this with all of society wanting instant gratification, and I too have fallen into the trap, I would have zero patience for waiting any time more than I do know to fill up.

    The occasional stories the media highlights, car burning up, drivers stranding themselves, sell papers or get clicks. Don't really care about that. The comments above are more concern:

    never noticed how much power i consumed when i was driving in city

    This is a serious issue. Most people won't. Its no different than people who won't check their oil or do anything, until an idiot light goes on, and then they still ignore it.

    i was doing 65 with ac and wipers because it was raining

    This is real life. Now say its 20 degrees out, snowing, and you are going up hill, at night, with lights and heater on. Real life

    I had to wait a bit more than 5 hours to get my charge

    What's that old saying? "Patience my **** " Certainly not in an age of instant gratification.

    They were not lying about the range as long as you drive it at 35mph

    Statistics. Lies and ****** lies.


    I appreciate all the input and answers. Wish you guys well with the new vehicle. Keep us informed, good OR bad
    We all hate stopping at the gas station during the week. That's why we drive the car until it has 30 miles left in the tank. Because it's never convenient to add 12 minutes to your commute, or more if you have to drive out of the way. I think Tesla saves time in this regard. Then you're paying back that time when you go on a road trip.


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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by 1028Caymn View Post
    Whether that one location is a problem is going to depend on the particular situation. I was pointing it out because the current situation in SD does not fit well with your definition of what Superchargers are and how they should be used.
    The Tesla website does include some "destination chargers" which seem to be mainly high end lodging that provide the chargers for "patrons". And none of those seem to be Superchargers.

    Your example of not "staying overnight at a hotel with a charger but instead wanted to turn around and drive back out of town the same day and you were low on charge then yes you'd go to that location to fill up before leaving" is just one example of a possible situation.
    I was pointing out that currently, ANY situation where one is in SD with a need for a Supercharger has only that one location to go to (and the number of charging stalls there doesn't change their location). And that location is not conveniently located near an interstate.
    This includes where one is in need of a Supercharger for driving long distances, state to state.
    Ok I have no idea why that location in San Diego isn't near an interstate, my assumption is that they will build another closer to an interstate soon. Every station I encountered between Tampa and KC was just off an interstate.

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Say Goodbye to the Internal Combustion Engine

    Say Goodbye to the Internal Combustion Engine

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by K-Man S View Post
    Ok I have no idea why that location in San Diego isn't near an interstate, my assumption is that they will build another closer to an interstate soon. Every station I encountered between Tampa and KC was just off an interstate.

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    Probably because there are Qualcomm employees who made it worthwhile to do that.
    Also, the Tesla website indicates 2 additional Superchargers coming to SD. One is in La Jolla, which will be even farther from an interstate than the Qualcomm location, and another in downtown SD. That one kind of makes sense.

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Welcome to the EV community, Ken!

    I've had a Chevy Volt and a BMW i3 all-electric as commuter cars for the last six years that I've (simultaneously) owned my 987.1 CS 6-speed. The 987.1 CS is for weekend fun. It's been a perfect combo to have an EV commuter with a weekend P-car.

    My CS ate a rod bearing last year. The rebuild cost as much as the car is worth. Electric motors? No valves, no pistons, no rings, no bores, no IMSicon, no AOS, no turbines, no fluids, and on and on. And with regenerative braking, your pads and rotors can easily last 100K miles.

    You get 100% torque from 0 RPM, and 100% horsepower at any altitude without a turbine (important for me since I'm in Denver where some roads cross 12,000 ft. ASL).

    Modern lithium packs will last 10 years before any impactful degradation occurs (during which the price of new packs will fall precipitously).

    Drive in city traffic? These things are a dream. All the passing power from a rolling start to dodge in and out of...whatever. My i3 will keep up with just about anything 5mph to 30mph.

    No noise if you like to make calls while you're commuting like I do. No idling. Very low energy consumption in high traffic scenarios. Lots of "driver assist" features are standard.

    What's not to like?


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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by chows4us View Post
    This is real life. Now say its 20 degrees out, snowing, and you are going up hill, at night, with lights and heater on. Real life
    )
    You understand that those things are not free on your ICE vehicle right? The 981 doesn't have an immediate fuel consumption monitor but I've had plenty of cars that did. You can watch your fuel consumption go down the more load you put on the car (including driving in cold weather). Doesn't matter what energy storage system your car happens to use.

    Re: real life.

    The number that I think people are looking for on this thread is energy density. Ken's vehicle's batteries account for the energy equivalent of 3 gallons of gasoline. That's right, there is 33kWh in one gallon of gas. It's just that the ICE is such a horrible design that it takes 5x as much energy to go the same distance. Even with light alloys and turbos and everything.

    To overcome the limitation of the batteries you have to add lots of them if you're going to give people the range they expect (and in doing so you're adding lots of weight). And you are going to have to add charging stations all over the place.

    Speaking of which. Both Shell and BP have announced they are going to start rolling out EV chargers at their fuel stations.

    BP in talks with electric carmakers on service station chargers | Reuters

    Shell's CEO even said he next car will be an EV.

    https://www.autoblog.com/2017/07/27/...lug-in-hybrid/

    So, the arguments about charging will be a thing of the past very soon. As I've said before in another thread, all gas stations have electricity. They just want to sell you energy -- the arguments over which kind is, it seems to me anyway, a little pointless.

    Back to the batteries...

    Battery technology has advanced considerably and is currently growing at a rate of about 5-8% per year:

    https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-tha...-ratio?share=1

    Worth a read. Particularly some of the comments. Seems like getting to the energy density of gasoline is almost impossible, but at the current rate of growth we will top-out in 25 years or so at about 4x the energy density we have now.

    So, just to put that into perspective, assuming no advances in electric motor technology, etc, Ken will be able to buy a Tesla that can go 1200 miles on a charge in 2042.

    Which is, coincidentally, the same year we'll stop complaining about the electric future of the automobile here on P-9.

    Re: Porsche

    They have absolutely everything to lose. I was chatting with a technology CEO a number of years ago and he told me he didn't worry so much about his competition as he did about some new company coming up with a disruptive technology that made his business obsolete (which is exactly what happened to him two years later).

    That's what Tesla is currently doing to every auto manufacturer right now. Would any of them be investing in electric vehicles if it weren't for Tesla? Certainly not the way they are. Porsche's biggest sellers now are the same vehicles that are or will be cross-shopped against the vehicles Tesla makes (Cayenne, Macan, Panamera). Panamera against the model S, the Cayenne against the model X and the Macan against the (forthcoming) model Y.

    They have to hit it out of the park with the Mission-E and it has to be more than a car, it has to be a platform (and it will be). A future platform for the Panamera, Macan, and the Cayenne.

    Porsche will continue to build awesome gasoline-powered vehicles well into the future (because energy density) if regulators will allow them to. I think they will be allowed to because as more and more people replace their large gas-guzzlers with electric vehicles (energy density again blah blah blah), I think the regs will be relaxed for lower-volume vehicles (fleet averages etc).

    Eventually though, when that density means that Porsche can build a 911 with 1/4 of the batteries that Ken's car has right now, they will and it will be amazing.

    Sorry for the long-winded post. TL;DR: Battery energy density will improve at 5-8% for 25 years and will disrupt the ICE vehicle market because it has reached its efficiency limit. Q.E.D.

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by canux View Post

    Re: Porsche

    They have absolutely everything to lose.
    I appreciate that you took the time to write all this. Good work. I have to break this into two parts, working backwards, Porsche.

    I said this for two years. Its all about emissions. Porsche, as part of VAG, as part of Germany and the EU, is done with ICE engines. The only question is the date. Its not about Tesla. Its about Merkel and the entire direction Europe is taking. The following is cut and paste from the Cayman not selling thread

    *********************

    Read the recent annoucements from the Porsche CEO in the original German (use Google translate). Start by reading thishttps://translate.googleusercontent....cwcZyLyiqwGzxg

    Then read the 2016 PAG annual report. https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/annu...port-2016.html They don't even call it an Annual Report anymore. No, its a "Sustainability" report.

    Then read about the EU mandating Paris rather then being voluntary The European Union Just Voted To Make The Paris Agreement Legally Binding | IFLScienceThe final tally of votes was 534 to 88 for the legislation

    And now Porsche has pulled out of WEC (LMP1) in favor of ... wait for it ... Formula E. That sounds exciting Porsche Pulling Out of Le Mans Prototype Racing in Favor of Formula E, Reports Say - The Drive

    Then go read the plethora of articlesThen go read the plethora of articles (https://www.planet-9.com/reviews/index.php) about Sweden, Norway, and now the UK banning ICE. E.g. https://www.theguardian.com/politics...vans-from-2040 (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/25/britain-to-ban-sale-of-all-diesel-and-petrol-cars-and-vans-from-2040) about Sweden, Norway, and now the UK banning ICE. E.g. https://www.theguardian.com/politics...vans-from-2040

    ... Their entire focus has shifted. Its all driven by EMISSIONS. It all mandated by the EU and they are just complying with their regulations. Game over.

    *******

    This might sound like doom and gloom but its real. France, Sweden and others had a fit (read the Whining Thread) about the US pulling out of Paris. They are accelerating their plans. Or trying to.

    This is not about "disruptive technology" the buzzword of the day. Thats just the latest words the green people throw around as a means to convince people its going to happen in a free market. When those words fail, they will come up with new words to try to convince the American Public EV will happen whether they like it of not.

    No, its about Government regulations, mostly driven by Europe, to end ICE. PAG has no choice. Do it or die. And the diesels didn't help them. Cayennes now recalled in Europe. They are screwed. Defrauding the US was a bad thing to do. VAG executives are sitting in US prisons charged with felonies, something unheard of until these fraud cases.

    (IMO) PAG didn't one day go all in on Green to save the world, they have no choice, and Tesla, in the big scheme of the auto industry is a bit player (will explain in the next section). If the big boys enter the market, game over for Tesla as the big boys will mass produce and sell in the $20,000 range, just like econoboxes sold today. Think Toyota Yaris, Honda Civic, cheap Hyundais. They will bury Tesla. But PAG is a niche player and all in because they have, effectively, been ordered to do so or go out of business. They must follow EU and German law.

    So the EU is cooked, as I said elsewhere. So lets turn our attention to the US and the first part of your discussion, which is a lot more relevant to America. In other words, I believe Europe will move to all EV cars sold within 10 years. They will try to ban diesels first, then all gasoline.
    Last edited by chows4us; 08-06-2017 at 05:57 AM.

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by K-Man S View Post
    Say Goodbye to the Internal Combustion Engine

    Say Goodbye to the Internal Combustion Engine

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    "Cars, buses and trucks are the second biggest source of pollution in the U.S. after electricity production."
    So, how exactly does increasing electricity production help to decrease pollution?

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by Croc'ed View Post
    "Cars, buses and trucks are the second biggest source of pollution in the U.S. after electricity production."
    So, how exactly does increasing electricity production help to decrease pollution?

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    It doesn't if we burn coal and gas to produce electricity, this is why Tesla is making battery walls and selling solar roofs to help people get their electricity elsewhere. We don't have to burn coal and gas to generate electricity we just do because coal is so cheap and so many plants were built to so that. Obviously to cut emissions we need to use solar, wind, water, safe nuclear or combination of other sources. Many Tesla owners I talk to either have or are getting solar roofs because they don't want to add to the coal and gas emissions.

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    TL;DR (lengthy) Watch Toyota, they are the future, not lithium batteries


    Now for the first part of Canux's post. You might be thinking I am anti EV. Far from it. You need to think about how real life is, and many things follow a normal curve. If talking EV, there will be the far left of the curve, the tail end of the extreme. These are early adopters who do things for a cause, this cause being environmentalists. We all have some kind of cause we believe in. You can ignore the early adopters. On the other end of the curve, the far right, are the haters. It doesn’t matter what they say either. Ignore them. These are the people who despite being told, for example, if you don’t wear your seatbelt they will die, refuse to wear a seatbelt. So now you go the middle of the curve. Those are the people like me and most people.

    We live in society of instant gratification (I want it and I want it NOW!) and “What’s in it for me”? Forget the leasers, those that do not own the property. The avg income is around $55K. If I had a 30 mile Roundtrip commute and $5 gas, I’d buy a STRIPPED $20K econobox getting 40 mpg because I could barely live on $55K with two kids and $5 or $4 gas costs too much. This is the target audience.


    Quote Originally Posted by canux View Post
    You understand that those things are not free on your ICE vehicle right?
    Anyone who lives in the snow belt knows not only do the gas formulations change but they get less mpg. If they pay any attention to their cars, they know exactly what to expect, when it runs out of gas, etc. I give them credit for understanding their cars (mostly).

    Quote Originally Posted by canux View Post
    To overcome the limitation of the batteries you have to add lots of them if you're going to give people the range they expect (and in doing so you're adding lots of weight). And you are going to have to add charging stations all over the place.
    Will come back to batteries at the end.

    Quote Originally Posted by canux View Post
    Speaking of which. Both Shell and BP have announced they are going to start rolling out EV chargers at their fuel stations.

    BP in talks with electric carmakers on service station chargers | Reuters
    Cool, except they are talking Netherlands and Britain, both places that have announced bans on ICE. If they don’t, what are those motorists going to do? They better be.

    UK Ban U.K. to Ban Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles by 2040 - The Drive

    France committed to Ban https://1reddrop.com/2017/07/13/fran...ld-statements/

    Norway ban 3 European countries say they're done with fossil-fueled cars

    Netherlands ban 3 European countries say they're done with fossil-fueled cars

    I already agreed, the EU is done. They are all in. Hence Porsche is all in. That is there. This is here. Two totally different parts of the world and situations.

    Quote Originally Posted by canux View Post
    Shell's CEO even said he next car will be an EV.

    https://www.autoblog.com/2017/07/27/...lug-in-hybrid/
    Red Herring and pointless. I assume Mr. van Beurdan lives in the Netherlands and must abide by Dutch law, that is, an ICE ban. That’s like the CEO of GE saying 5 years before the US ban on incandescent light bulbs that he is going to buy some CFLs. What else can he say? He’s going to buy a Ford Mustang?

    Quote Originally Posted by canux View Post
    So, the arguments about charging will be a thing of the past very soon.
    In the EU, I agree within a decade they will sort this out. In NA, not so much. EU has MUCH greater population density. Google it. Totally different situation.

    Quote Originally Posted by canux View Post
    Back to the batteries...
    OK, now to batteries.

    First I keep seeing “new company coming up with a disruptive technology”

    These buzzwords are being co-opted by green advocates pushing a business practice taught to Harvard MBA types in the mid-90s. It was directed to tell them stuff like Be agile, watch everything, don't put your head in the sand, don't be arrogant. Today its like “Don’t be like Kodak”. You can research Kodak elsewhere. To be disruptive, the public has to own it. From the people who actually INVENTED this stuff, Harvard, read https://hbr.org/2015/12/what-is-disruptive-innovation They know their buzzword has been co-opted and it appears they don’t like that, in this case talking about Uber. BTW, here is the original https://hbr.org/1995/01/disruptive-t...ching-the-wave

    "Despite broad dissemination, the theory’s core concepts have been widely misunderstood and its basic tenets frequently misapplied." ROFL, no kidding

    "In our experience, too many people who speak of “disruption” have not read a serious book or article on the subject.

    Many … writers … use “disruptive innovation” to describe any situation in which an industry is shaken up"

    You can read the rest yourself but a key points are:

    "Disruptive innovations originate in low-end or new-market footholds.

    disrupters start by appealing to low-end or unserved consumers and then migrate to the mainstream market."

    This is the COMPLETE OPPOSITE of EV. They were marketed to the rich, not econobox buyers. Cars are NOT an unserved customers. They have been around for 120 years or so. Just as the initial iPhone was a “Sustaining” technology, so is the EV. It was only when the iPhone REPLACED Internet access from laptops, do they talk about that particular aspect of the iPhone being disruptive to the laptop business.

    "Disruptive innovations don’t catch on with mainstream customers until quality catches up to their standards.

    Typically, customers are not willing to switch to the new offering merely because it is less expensive. Instead, they wait until its quality rises enough to satisfy them. Once that’s happened, they adopt the new product and happily accept its lower price. (This is how disruption drives prices down in a market.)"

    They consider Netflix and iphone as disruptive. Netflix because of streaming, not for DVD rentals and the iPhone because of Internet access from a mobile rather than a desktop or laptop NOT for a different User Interface.

    EV does none of this. Its not a disruptive technology. Its sustaining, just a different fuel. But those pushing EV have jumped on the buzzword bandwagon, and I believe incorrectly.

    Second batteries. I’m not going to argue that technology always moves forward. Of course it does. But consider this.

    1. What are the raw materials and where do they come from?

    Lithium and Cobalt. Cobalt? Read http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ell-Earth.html You can read for yourself the despicable mining conditions for child miners in a third world country. “The planned switch to clean energy vehicles has led to an extraordinary surge in demand. While a smartphone battery uses no more than 10 grams of refined cobalt, an electric car needs 15kg (33lb).”

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz4ozAEOEhX
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    And Lithium? Chile and China. Think very hard about the US allowing its entire transportation structure, the very means by which ALL products and people would be moved, being controlled by Chile, Congo, and China (Not to mention the rare earth elements). Now if you are a globalist, thats no problem. One world government. But in the history of man, there are always wars over natural resources. Not going to happen. The US didn’t create a Strategic Oil Reserve for fun (Now being sold off). What is the next war going to be over who owns the Lithium?

    Lithium has other issues, like blowing stuff up. There is a reason you can’t mail lithium via air nor carry it on a plane. If you own a LED flashlight and buy a cheap Chinese knockoff battery, watch out. Or those Vaping. Here is what can happen (nevermind the Teslas burning up). Watch



    Early adopters always pay dearly for being early

    http://nationalpost.com/opinion/leon...d-438114e7dfb9

    There are several articles about the solid state batteries in the last week. This one from Forbes is key

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2017/07/25/ultrafast-charging-solid-state-ev-batteries-around-the-corner-toyota-confirms/#4d5d346144bb

    Solid state is from glass, silicon. About free everywhere. This would totally revolutionize the EV industry. No fire worries. And if it caught on? All those Tesla battery factories??? All those BP and Shell charging stations? The might pay dearly for jumping on the bandwagon to early. Now all industries NEED early adopters. It gets the ball rolling. But they pay for it.

    "Solid state batteries are no fire hazard, they promise to recharge faster, store more power in a given volume, and, especially interesting for automobile engineers, they can be molded into many shapes."

    But the real key, the real factor is this.

    "Toyota is a company that sells cars, not an ideology."

    This writer knows. He hit upon Tesla's problem. They are pushing a cause. Toyota, OTH, understands the car business. If Toyota puts out an EV based on silicon? Game over for Tesla and all the lithium early adopters. They will crush the competition putting out $25K entry level EVs with no fire issues and longer ranges.

    And Solid-state batteries with twice the range of today’s EVs, while charging only in minutes.

    Think about it. Toyota sells in the $15 - $30K range. An EV with twice the range, charges in minutes, for $25K? The public would jump all over it. Toyota sells more cars than anybody, they have a well earned reputation for reliability.

    Forget about the early adopters and the nahsayers. Sell an under $30K car with those features and watch out. Where do I sign up?
    Last edited by chows4us; 08-06-2017 at 09:17 AM.

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    Re: Mission E - Can it compete with Tesla?

    Quote Originally Posted by chows4us View Post
    TL;DR (lengthy) Watch Toyota, they are the future, not lithium batteries


    Now for the first part of Canux's post. You might be thinking I am anti EV. Far from it. You need to think about how real life is, and many things follow a normal curve. If talking EV, there will be the far left of the curve, the tail end of the extreme. These are early adopters who do things for a cause, this cause being environmentalists. We all have some kind of cause we believe in. You can ignore the early adopters. On the other end of the curve, the far right, are the haters. It doesn’t matter what they say either. Ignore them. These are the people who despite being told, for example, if you don’t wear your seatbelt they will die, refuse to wear a seatbelt. So now you go the middle of the curve. Those are the people like me and most people.

    We live in society of instant gratification (I want it and I want it NOW!) and “What’s in it for me”? Forget the leasers, those that do not own the property. The avg income is around $55K. If I had a 30 mile Roundtrip commute and $5 gas, I’d buy a STRIPPED $20K econobox getting 40 mpg because I could barely live on $55K with two kids and $5 or $4 gas costs too much. This is the target audience.




    Anyone who lives in the snow belt knows not only do the gas formulations change but they get less mpg. If they pay any attention to their cars, they know exactly what to expect, when it runs out of gas, etc. I give them credit for understanding their cars (mostly).



    Will come back to batteries at the end.



    Cool, except they are talking Netherlands and Britain, both places that have announced bans on ICE. If they don’t, what are those motorists going to do? They better be.

    UK Ban U.K. to Ban Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles by 2040 - The Drive

    France committed to Ban https://1reddrop.com/2017/07/13/fran...ld-statements/

    Norway ban 3 European countries say they're done with fossil-fueled cars

    Netherlands ban 3 European countries say they're done with fossil-fueled cars

    I already agreed, the EU is done. They are all in. Hence Porsche is all in. That is there. This is here. Two totally different parts of the world and situations.



    Red Herring and pointless. I assume Mr. van Beurdan lives in the Netherlands and must abide by Dutch law, that is, an ICE ban. That’s like the CEO of GE saying 5 years before the US ban on incandescent light bulbs that he is going to buy some CFLs. What else can he say? He’s going to buy a Ford Mustang?



    In the EU, I agree within a decade they will sort this out. In NA, not so much. EU has MUCH greater population density. Google it. Totally different situation.



    OK, now to batteries.

    First I keep seeing “new company coming up with a disruptive technology”

    These buzzwords are being co-opted by green advocates pushing a business practice taught to Harvard MBA types in the mid-90s. It was directed to tell them stuff like Be agile, watch everything, don't put your head in the sand, don't be arrogant. Today its like “Don’t be like Kodak”. You can research Kodak elsewhere. To be disruptive, the public has to own it. From the people who actually INVENTED this stuff, Harvard, read https://hbr.org/2015/12/what-is-disruptive-innovation They know their buzzword has been co-opted and it appears they don’t like that, in this case talking about Uber. BTW, here is the original https://hbr.org/1995/01/disruptive-t...ching-the-wave

    "Despite broad dissemination, the theory’s core concepts have been widely misunderstood and its basic tenets frequently misapplied." ROFL, no kidding

    "In our experience, too many people who speak of “disruption” have not read a serious book or article on the subject.

    Many … writers … use “disruptive innovation” to describe any situation in which an industry is shaken up"

    You can read the rest yourself but a key points are:

    "Disruptive innovations originate in low-end or new-market footholds.

    disrupters start by appealing to low-end or unserved consumers and then migrate to the mainstream market."

    This is the COMPLETE OPPOSITE of EV. They were marketed to the rich, not econobox buyers. Cars are NOT an unserved customers. They have been around for 120 years or so. Just as the initial iPhone was a “Sustaining” technology, so is the EV. It was only when the iPhone REPLACED Internet access from laptops, do they talk about that particular aspect of the iPhone being disruptive to the laptop business.

    "Disruptive innovations don’t catch on with mainstream customers until quality catches up to their standards.

    Typically, customers are not willing to switch to the new offering merely because it is less expensive. Instead, they wait until its quality rises enough to satisfy them. Once that’s happened, they adopt the new product and happily accept its lower price. (This is how disruption drives prices down in a market.)"

    They consider Netflix and iphone as disruptive. Netflix because of streaming, not for DVD rentals and the iPhone because of Internet access from a mobile rather than a desktop or laptop NOT for a different User Interface.

    EV does none of this. Its not a disruptive technology. Its sustaining, just a different fuel. But those pushing EV have jumped on the buzzword bandwagon, and I believe incorrectly.

    Second batteries. I’m not going to argue that technology always moves forward. Of course it does. But consider this.

    1. What are the raw materials and where do they come from?

    Lithium and Cobalt. Cobalt? Read http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ell-Earth.html You can read for yourself the despicable mining conditions for child miners in a third world country. “The planned switch to clean energy vehicles has led to an extraordinary surge in demand. While a smartphone battery uses no more than 10 grams of refined cobalt, an electric car needs 15kg (33lb).”

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz4ozAEOEhX
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    And Lithium? Chile and China. Think very hard about the US allowing its entire transportation structure, the very means by which ALL products and people would be moved, being controlled by Chile, Congo, and China (Not to mention the rare earth elements). Now if you are a globalist, thats no problem. One world government. But in the history of man, there are always wars over natural resources. Not going to happen. The US didn’t create a Strategic Oil Reserve for fun (Now being sold off). What is the next war going to be over who owns the Lithium?

    Lithium has other issues, like blowing stuff up. There is a reason you can’t mail lithium via air nor carry it on a plane. If you own a LED flashlight and buy a cheap Chinese knockoff battery, watch out. Or those Vaping. Here is what can happen (nevermind the Teslas burning up). Watch



    Early adopters always pay dearly for being early

    http://nationalpost.com/opinion/leon...d-438114e7dfb9

    There are several articles about the solid state batteries in the last week. This one from Forbes is key

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2017/07/25/ultrafast-charging-solid-state-ev-batteries-around-the-corner-toyota-confirms/#4d5d346144bb

    Solid state is from glass, silicon. About free everywhere. This would totally revolutionize the EV industry. No fire worries. And if it caught on? All those Tesla battery factories??? All those BP and Shell charging stations? The might pay dearly for jumping on the bandwagon to early. Now all industries NEED early adopters. It gets the ball rolling. But they pay for it.

    "Solid state batteries are no fire hazard, they promise to recharge faster, store more power in a given volume, and, especially interesting for automobile engineers, they can be molded into many shapes."

    But the real key, the real factor is this.

    "Toyota is a company that sells cars, not an ideology."

    This writer knows. He hit upon Tesla's problem. They are pushing a cause. Toyota, OTH, understands the car business. If Toyota puts out an EV based on silicon? Game over for Tesla and all the lithium early adopters. They will crush the competition putting out $25K entry level EVs with no fire issues and longer ranges.

    And Solid-state batteries with twice the range of today’s EVs, while charging only in minutes.

    Think about it. Toyota sells in the $15 - $30K range. An EV with twice the range, charges in minutes, for $25K? The public would jump all over it. Toyota sells more cars than anybody, they have a well earned reputation for reliability.

    Forget about the early adopters and the nahsayers. Sell an under $30K car with those features and watch out. Where do I sign up?
    There's too much here for me to respond to all the different points, but for the sake of a good pun I will say that I agree in part and disagree in part, in other words a "hybrid" approach!

    I agree that regulations in Europe are going to drive change as long as those regulations stay in place, BUT I don't think those regulations materialized out of thin air, I think it took a company like Tesla to show that it IS possible to make an alternative fuel vehicle in mass production to spur some of the activists to push for more change via regulation. Without Tesla showing that this was possible, I think governments would have been more lenient on the status quo automotive industry, after all, they don't want to lose manufacturing jobs and hurt their own countries economies, but now they've seen examples where it can work, where it can make sense, and where if you do more research and make more advances we can, at some point, move to a cleaner future and get off our over-reliance on oil and gas. So I'm not saying it wouldn't have happened anyway at some point, but I am saying it is happening sooner as opposed to later because of examples like Tesla.
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