The core election issue was no pipelines to get oil sands product to market, creating a huge price differential (lower) for Alberta oil. Oil feeds the government coffers, and lower prices have had a negative ripple effect throughout the provincial economy. Many Albertans blamed the Federal government and Trudeau for not addressing the problem, and the provincial government for not taking the Federal government to task. So...out with the quasi-socialist NPD government and in with oft described right-wing Conservatives. The odds of any new pipelines getting built anytime soon remain slim, for reasons entirely out of the direct control of the Provincial government. Yes there was a side show around carbon taxes and climate plans, and while both will be quickly reversed it won't help get a pipeline built and more oil flowing at higher prices.
Last edited by gcurnew; 04-17-2019 at 10:52 PM.
2012 Cayman S, PDK, Platinum Silver/Black
2019 AMG C43 Coupe, Graphite Grey
2018 Harley Davidson Iron 883 (1200 kit), Wicked Red
2018 Triumph Bonneville Speedmaster, fully blacked-out
Opinion 4/17/19 Tesla's Long-Range Model 3 Has A Heavier CO2 Footprint Than Toyota's Camry Hybrid also in yesterday's flipboard. In CO2 grams/mile
Camry Hybrid Le 211.1
Camry Hybrid 244.5
Tesla long range Model 3 278.1
disclaimer, a short seller
Since the process of producing, refining and transporting petroleum products is roughly 80% efficient,
1) THat is CRAZY talk, nowhere close to 80% efficient
2) You don't apply 80% to the output of the Camry, you apply whatever % you are using to the oil refining equipment, the oil drilling equipment, the oil transportation vehicles (ship, tanker trucks, etc.)
So already, in the first paragraph this guy is WAY off...And then of course he IGNORES the costs of creating the battery in the Camry Hybrid (but penalizes the Tesla for having battery CO2 costs)
Until he does a deep dive into the actual costs of drilling, transporting and refining oil into gas, getting it to the gas stations to be pumped into cars this "analysis" is a JOKE. He even goes so far as to choose the higher number for CO2 emissions for power plants knowing full well that some of the energy used to create those electrons are from renewable sources like wind and solar, and last but not least refuses to admit that electrical power generation is getting more green as time goes by, something that oil production is not. So while he makes some assumptions about battery packs (poor ones I might add because we already have Model S/X numbers and the 3 numbers are better but he doesn't even use S/X numbers he uses something made up and lower) over the lifetime of the pack, he doesn't do the same analysis for the electricity being generated and its sources over the lifetime of the pack either. In other words he ignores anything that might actually reflect reality.
Who left that mic on??
Also from Flipboard ... 4/18/19 Toyota: ‘nobody is selling electric vehicles at a profitable margin’ – wrong!
Now lets go back to post # 739 Notre Dame is burning and someone is complaining instead of rebuilding a 850 year old icon, spend the money on green energy. Sure. This article is a good example of why EV blogs, which are selling a product, might not be the best source of material. Lets see
1. VW says EVs are here to stay. Well duh. VAG is in the EU. They are done and I agree they are done. So what? The blog is using a false equivalency fallacy.
2. Forget what the blog says, lets go to the Bloomberg source article A $255 Billion EV Debate Is Raging Among the World’s Biggest Automakers
Oh look, the blog forgot to mention that Bloomberg said: "The German giant still dealing with the fallout from its diesel scandal that erupted almost three years ago plans to build a small, all-electric sport utility vehicle as part of an $800 million investment in its Chattanooga, Tennessee, assembly plant. ... “Even if it’s 10 percent of the market, we want to pursue it,” Keogh said after his presentation"
3. Toyota said: "The average vehicle today costs $34,000 and for many EVs, the battery costs $34,000. ... Toyota’s Carter remains unconvinced. He said after his speech that Toyota will sell an electric model in the U.S., but declined to say when. “This is going to be a slow evolution in the U.S. market, unlike in China and Europe where there are government regulations” hastening electrification, Carter said in an interview. “Nobody is selling electric vehicles at a profitable margin.”
4. The blog attacks Toyota. He does some math and points to tesla and Nissan making profit. The blogs points to last quarter tesla profits.
a. What about all the other year before that? What time period did Toyota mean. Yesterday? last year? The entire R&D and production period. I would read that to mean they have to be sustained profit. Not one quarter. Its all in how you read it.
b. Nissan, the blog points to its OWN article https://electrek.co/2018/02/16/renau...electric-cars/ quoting Ghosn. Isn't Ghosn sitting in jail? https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.295f1662b802 Oh yeah.
My point here is simply. Do your own research. Ignore the people selling you something. Read the source material. These flipboard EV blogs are just the sellers of a product. Marketing. I imagine Toyota knows exactly what its doing. Similarly, so doesn't VAG. In order to remain a company, VAG needs to follow EU regulations, in which case the "stick" is crippling.
Well this exploding Tesla is not at all reason for concern.
2006, 987 S, Guards Red, 135K Miles to
2018, 982, Miami Blue, ...
2012 Cayenne S, Black
I'm assuming everyone watched the 3 hour long presentation by Tesla yesterday on full self driving hardware, software and services. If not, here is a good 15 minute recap: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnoeNHhojZ8
Then Tesla released a sample full self driving video (They also let analysts go out in the cars and experience it first hand)
I much prefer the exploding Tesla story.
2016 CS, Guards Red, Black Interior, 20" Carrera S partially black, PDK, Sport Chrono, SportDesign Steering Wheel, Sports Seats +, PDLS with HBA, Convenience, Red Belts, Bose, SS sills illuminated, Wailing NA flat 6!
Are there volatile chemicals in a battery cell? Yep. Are there volatile hydrocarbons in your gas tank? Yep. If a gas car sitting in a parking garage suddenly caught fire we'd probably think that either some defect existed like a wire shorting out near a fuel line, or perhaps some damage happened like a hole in a gas tank, or maybe a leak caused by a faulty weld at the factory.
I do find it somewhat suspicious that this parking garage where this Tesla was parked only has a few cameras and they just happened to park right in front of one of them and all this got captured on the security video because of that. Again, could be totally innocent and happenstance, but given recordings of other battery packs smoldering and then igniting from damage this one went up a lot faster and with a strange sudden puff of something before the actual ignition occurs.
and the Tesla examples are poster children for the problem:
"... the lithium-ion battery of a Chevy Volt caught fire three weeks after it was damaged in a side-impact crash test conducted by the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration."
This scares consumers and the firemen. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/tesl...tow-yard-.html
"A Tesla Model S caught fire Tuesday in a business parking lot in Los Gatos, California, according to the Santa Clara County Fire Department, then reignited hours later at a tow yard in Campbell."
level 4 or 5 (I forget which one) so ... meh.
That's not Tesla's problem. Thats the problem of living in a society expecting instant gratification. I want it and want it NOW. Otherwise, no one cares.
But the boosters landing back on their pads was impressive to me.
Really??? I saw Forbes carried it along with all the usual suspect like CNN, Wired, MSNBC, etc. etc. Will FSD come as fast as Elon says? Who knows, but obviously it is coming and it is at least Level 4, although the distinction between 4 and 5 is a bit blurred, clearly it is above 3 because no driver is required. Watch just the 2nd video of the FSD in action and you will see the driver wasn't required other than he put the destination into the Nav system, the car did the rest.
Booster landings have been awesome, sadly the capsule was blown apart by a faulty booster in a recent abort test but that's why you do those tests... before you add people to the mix....
So while Audi is getting 204 miles out of a 95kw battery pack in the new E-Tron, Tesla is getting this: https://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesl...odel-s-review/
(400 miles according to Motortrend's author who drove the car)
Should be interesting to see what Porsche does with the same 95kw battery pack, assuming they can get batteries since right now Audi can't...
2006, 987 S, Guards Red, 135K Miles to
2018, 982, Miami Blue, ...
2012 Cayenne S, Black
The EV Is the Car of the Future, and It Might Always Be regarding the new EV box/cay.
TL;DR EVs are just to impractical for people. NO, they are not "disruptive technology".
If you don’t know who Jack Baruth is you should. He’s a good writer for The Truth About Cars (TTAC) and R&T. He races (wheel to wheel) and owned several Porsches. But, he’s not always kind towards Porsche having written seven articles criticizing them on TTAC (Seven Deadly Sins) including this one about the 2006 Cayman S (about pricing strategy). He’s also a member here, posted a few times, if I remember right about some Boxster article he wrote in R&T.
Everyone should read this EV article because its pragmatic. There is just too much to go over but well worth the read. It’s the TaaS stuff, the disruptive technology nonsense. No, Laser Discs are not going to take over the world, nor is EVs disruptive technology. Much of what he wrote is what I've been saying, and I just read these articles. Quote:
“EVs … don’t work for the vast majority of American drivers, and it is possible that they never will. … The next time you visit a restaurant, a retail store, or anywhere else that people don’t receive six-figure deferred-compensation packages, take a look at the cars out there. They are old, and they are tired ... Will the electric cars of 2024 perform the same way in 2044? Or have we decided, as a society, that the working poor can walk to that work?”
Excellent question. We here live in fantasy land. He’s right. Look at any suburban mall lot. Sure there are some new cars but many are old. If the average car on the road is 11 years, then there are MANY that are 25 years old. Average people do NOT buy new $35K cars. Thats the average compensating for all the $100K+ cars.
“… the Tesla Model S is popular, but that has less to do with its technical merits than it does with its status as the only acceptable way to spend a hundred grand (or more) on a car in many of our more #Blessed communities. In that respect, it resembles nothing so much as a stainless-steel Rolex Daytona, which costs just as much as a solid gold Rolex Daytona because it’s no longer acceptable to wear a gold watch on Wall Street.”
Ahh, the political correct. Its the 1% thing. If you don't get the stainless Daytona reference, go over to Rolex forums and start reading. The current craze is stainless Sports Watches. The Stainless Daytona is highly sought after and demands crazy money for what it is. All the stainless sports models are sought after. Meanwhile, the precious metals dress watches? Meh. So 1980s. Some of that is "collecting". Some people would rather have three Stainless Sports Models than one precious metal or two bimetal watches. After all, three is bigger than 1 or 2.
“Is there now, or has there ever been, a mass-market electric vehicle that turned an actual profit? If you respond by telling me that Tesla just declared a profit for the quarter, then I’ll ask you to come back when they do it four times in a row.”
Which brings us to JPHBs CNBC article. The excuses don’t matter. The fact is Tesla didn’t just not make the analysis expectations but missed lost money big time. And people wonder why Toyota won’t play the EV game? EV blogs argue that Toyota doesn’t know what they are doing? Sure they don't.
Turns out the the author is leaving R&T for another job. This is one of his last articles:
They Say You Don't Need More Than an EV, but Who Determines What You Need?
This seems targeted to the "sanctimonious" EV owners chastising the evil people who love gasoline engines. Its all about me. I get this. Its OK to have passion. Its NOT OK to put your standards on me. The country is founded on individual rights, rights of the people OVER the government, not the other way around. So a little story.
In 2005 I bought a new JCW mini before buying a Cayman S the next year. I saw some fanaticism in that community. You HAVE to have a small car. You HAVE to get good gas mileage What nonsense. If you own a house, you got to haul stuff around. I’ve owned two sports cars at the same time and I was crazy, admitted it, and sold one for something practical. Its a miserable existence. But I was fanatical about owning sports cars. I "tried" to make it work for a couple of years. But those who are fanatical about their beliefs don’t get it. They are blinded by their beliefs. I've heard:
YOU do not need SUV. On the days you need to carry something, rent a truck. That’s nonsense. Read his article. It’s the 99% usage. You don’t buy a fridge sized for all your needs. Have a party? Buy a cheap cooler and some ice for the beer and soda. I have. But you don’t do that for cars, its too expensive and an aggravation. Thats a fallacy. The analogy doesn't scale. In 2005, look at the best selling vehicles in the US vs 2018.
Its about the same no matter where you look among the best sellers. The number of pickups and SUVs has about doubled. Cars are disappearing. From his article, he needs a truck to haul his race cars to the track.
“No matter how I justified my NEEDs, however, my correspondents [readers of his articles] managed to tear my arguments into tiny pieces. Each of them constructed intricate webs of services and rentals and Superchargers to answer all concerns. With just a smartphone, six different “apps,” and an intricate knowledge of everything from the Acela timetable to the Uber surcharge algorithm, I could replace my big, wasteful truck with a diverse community of software-enabled resources.”
Such nonsense. If your phone is your life, or computers, there are much bigger issues going on. It has to be “convenient”. Not convenient? Not buying it. What he describes is what fanatics/extremist do. They rationalize making life difficult because it fits "their cause". And then they wonder why the rest of the world doesn't follow. Fanaticism or extremist is hurting their cause. Take a step back, breath. The culture today wants INSTANT Gratification (and it all started with 30 minute Pizza delivery). If I can't get one day Amazon delivery I get mad. Two days isn't good enough anymore. I am NOT going to hunt for a place to charge nor spend money for a charging station, etc. Just not going to happen. I don't care about TCO (well, I do if its ridiculous, but the average person has NO idea what TCO is nor care).
IOW, extremism gets nowhere. The more extreme the fanaticism, the more the resistance, the more they get laughed at. The masses have other things to worry about than "your" passion. He continues:
“What happens if some whiz-bang company shows up at the 2029 Detroit Auto Show with a crew-cab pickup truck that tows 11,200 pounds, goes 450 miles on a single charge, and recharges in ten minutes using the existing American electric infrastructure? In other words, what happens if an EV appears that promises the same nearly-unlimited freedom, and choice, of a modern internal-combustion vehicle? I can tell you what I’m gonna do: I’ll gripe for a year or so, and then I’ll buy it”
You have to read the rest of the article for this to make sense but I agree. If in 10 years I can buy an EV, its the same price as any other car, and I don't have to worry about how long it takes to charge nor where, anywhere in the country, then I believe in the free market competition and if its the same or better than the competion, I'd buy it.
Until then. LOL. I know there are some who think oil is evil. After all, now NYC won't sell hotdogs at city owned operations (Google it) and we can't own dogs or cats (not political but a reference back in Oct, 2018 from some academic paper that you can't have dogs or cats anymore because they are carnivores and you know cattle fart https://www.planet-9.com/automotive-off-topic/218673-man-made-global-warming-cars-post2095955.html#post2095955 long before the "NGD") but ... the US is now the biggest oil producer in the world https://www.marketscreener.com/BRENT...-cut-28475402/
and look at the oil well chart. https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gf...P608/eikon.png
The oil business is booming. In any case, I suggest reading the authors articles. He writes well, races, and owns Porsches.
Certainly a lot to digest, and I could only find 2 of Jack's prior 3 posts here but I assume they were all in the Road and Track topic from 2014.
Interestingly back then Jack said : "I'm 42, I've been a 911 owner since I was thirty, I love the cars, I believe in Porsche, I'm an idealist, I admit. I hold them to a different standard than I would, say, Toyota because the world doesn't need another Toyota, particularly at three times the price. I want Porsche to focus on its core competency of building sports cars that are durable and enjoyable and I'm sick unto death of the SUVs and the sedans and the financial adventurism and the Chinese-made branded clothing and the ridiculous pricing and the artificial price/performance ladder. "
How do you think he feels 5 years on when Porsche has done nothing but crank out more and more SUVs and lightly refreshed some of the sports cars and relegated others to using 4 cylinder engines? Makes you wonder if he would be more positive about Tesla or Porsche
I read his EV articles and I'm not sure what his beef is other than he is young and wants his independence to do whatever he wants to do whenever he wants to do it and feels like an ICE car does that better than an EV for him. But, the same way he says that others shouldn't dictate his needs to him, he shouldn't dictate the needs of others to them either. Here's a little gem, No vehicle does everything well or satisfies every need. If such a vehicle existed we'd all buy it and be done with it, well maybe not everyone, but you get my point. Criticizing an EV because it doesn't do X well or Y well for him is fine within the confines if HIS needs and HIS criteria. I own multiple vehicles, not because I want to fill up a garage, but because each satisfies different needs/desires that I have. My EV fits my need for an efficient cost-effective daily commuter capable of hauling the kids and groceries and misc items I need to haul around while still having a low running cost (TCO if you want to us that term), high dependability, and still fun to drive. Oh and the added bonus of being better for the environment than some other options.
A good question to Jack might be what is his daily driver and why. Not what he hauls his racecar to the track with, not what he drives on the track, but just the daily have to commute to the office, run to Costco, pick up the kids sort of vehicle. Given whatever vehicle that is, the next question would be "could an EV replace that vehicle effectively?" and if the answer is "Yes" then the next question is what is stopping him from doing so when it comes time to replace that vehicle? Anything?
Let's hope he drops by and responds....
Yes, he came by regarding a R&T Article at that time. Can't find the thread when I wrote that.
I see his point about "his needs". and not "your needs". I think your saying the same thing. "My EV fits my need for an efficient cost-effective daily commuter capable of hauling the kids and groceries and misc items I need to haul ..." He's saying the same thing. Don't tell him what to buy. And no one should tell you what to buy. To be very clear, the concept of "mandated" EV (and there is no way around this without saying it to some degree), will never be accepted in the US. The US traditionally has broken away from its European roots. Everything is based on "your" rights as an individual. Having anything shoved down your throat for the good of everyone will not fly - unless its the will of the people. The consumer decides what they buy, not the government.
Just look at cigarettes. Despite Fines, Advertising bans, and everything else the government can possibly do to ban smoking, there are MASSIVE numbers of smokers in the US. I STILL see people smoking to this day, and now they are smoking weed
I don't think he's criticizing EVs, but saying don't shove it down my throat and don't give me a bunch of rationalization based on smart phones, computers, and the like telling me where to charge. Its too difficult. It has to be easy. And he's saying it just won't work for poorer folks who use 10 year old cars, can't have charging stations where they live, don't live in liberal green areas, etc. Real life isn't always like that. Like I said, my anecdotal data, I am in a green area and see no EVs at the handful of charging stations nor EV spots, always entry. I do see the same Model X who must live nearby.
On other note, I see the bashing of Tesla today because of the bad quarter. Well thats to be expected but this.
Tesla insurance always watching you? Yeah, no. Always connected? Yeah, no. Very bad idea. One day the ransom people will hijack when its profitable, its just a matter of when. And watching you for speeding? yeah, no.
"But drive in a "crazy way" (as Musk puts it), and "the insurance rate is higher.”
And this financial article echoes Jack Baruth Tesla's losses suggest it may not live to see the world that it created and sounds like what I've been saying, once profitable, the big boys will eat Tesla.
Anyway, I understand what he's saying. BTW, he always seems down on Porsche. He writes a lot on TTAC. Read his Cayman S article, an oldie but a goodie