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Light vehicle sales for 2009 were 10.4 million, the lowest level in 27 years and 21.2% lower than 2008. Polk predicts the light vehicle market will be 11.5 million units in 2010, according to its most recent U.S. light vehicle forecast. We believe wealth accumulation and improving consumer confidence added to GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2009 resulting in a slow but steady GDP growth in 2010. Polk’s automotive forecast for Real GDP U.S. growth in 2010 is 2.9%.

It is clear that we are in a recovery; however, risks to the pace of economic growth remain. As Government stimulus programs end, consumers must have confidence to continue spending and businesses need to invest and hire, otherwise the economic recovery could slow in 2010.

We are encouraged by a light vehicle industry SAAR above 10 million for three consecutive months and record low inventories at dealerships. While industry levels remain far below their normal levels, there seems to be some momentum out there.

The latest Polk light vehicle forecast is available free for your download. This month's forecast discusses December 2009 sales, our economic outlook and our light vehicle forecast for the year ahead. I invite you to read the January edition of the forecast report available on Polk's forecasting dashboard. For a full copy of Polk’s U.S. Light Vehicle Forecast Report, please visit Polk's Forecasting Dashboards today.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Forecast



Posted by Dave Goebel, North American Forecast Consultant, Polk (01.08.2010)



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