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Reading a number of posts, one cannot help but notice the number of people who have sold or traded in their 911 for a Cayman or Boxster, and they seem generally very pleased to have made the change. The superb handling of these mid-engine cars helps to offset the lower power output, compared to the 911. Given this, the fact that Porsche went to a mid-engine configuration for the 918 Spyder, and the rumours of a 400 bhp flat four turbo in the Cayman GT4, it would appear that Porsche is really looking at viable alternatives to the classic rear-engine 911 design. It may be that the 911 will be phased out in the not too distant future. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on this.
 

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Those two little seats for midgets in the back + 911 letters on the back is a winning formula for Porsche, so I don't see it it fading out any time soon :)
 

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As much as 911 members are buying a 981 as a second car or moving to it altogether (Me) and realize how great it is, there are probably double of that population that will never considered it b/c it's not a 911. Doesn't matter if the engine is on top of the hood, 911 is still an icon and it still what Porsche is known for. When you tell people you own a Porsche, everyone will assume it's a 911. It'll be a long time before a 911 lose that status.
 

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It may be that the 911 will be phased out in the not too distant future.
A word of caution - Please do not let this question get out of hand as it can become inflammatory.

Thank you

The GT and RSR 911 racing days are numbered. The upcoming 960 FeFi appears to be it's replacement or at least its looking that way from reports, with the requisite price uptick.
 

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As much as 911 members are buying a 981 as a second car or moving to it altogether (Me) and realize how great it is, there are probably double of that population that will never considered it b/c it's not a 911. Doesn't matter if the engine is on top of the hood, 911 is still an icon and it still what Porsche is known for. When you tell people you own a Porsche, everyone will assume it's a 911. It'll be a long time before a 911 lose that status.
Yes, that makes sense. I guess there are really two kinds of Porsche owners; those who are looking for the ultimate sports car experience, and those who enjoy the car simply for its prestige. This is not a criticism of the latter group, merely an observation.
 

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The 928 was developed to be the 911 replacement. It was a remarkable car but in the end did not survive. There will always be a rear engine 2+2 called 911. IMO of course. Oh and the mid engine Carrera GT came well before the 918.
 

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… there are really two kinds of Porsche owners; those who are looking for the ultimate sports car experience, and those who enjoy the car simply for its prestige. This is not a criticism of the latter group, merely an observation.
I just asked you to use caution as this subject is inflammatory.

Instead you just painted a broad stroke (implied) of all 911 owners as those not "looking for the ultimate sports car experience"

I understand its just your opinion so I will say it one last time.

Please do not let this question get out of hand as it can become inflammatory.


…. discuss away.
 

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I could speculate, equally, and along the lines of some others in the thread that the 911 is here for the long haul. If you look at what Porsche is doing is keeping it a very relevant car through refinement and evolutionary engineering. The 991 has its engine 2.5" further forward if memory serves which takes the leverage of that lump a bit more towards the mid.......not a massive change but an adjustment for handling et al. The RSRs with this, increased wheelbase and the like responded well in their successes.
 

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Those two little seats for midgets in the back + 911 letters on the back is a winning formula for Porsche, so I don't see it it fading out any time soon :)
When I had my 911 - way back in the 70s - my wife and I used the back seat for our son and an Irish setter. :)

I personally don't see the 911 going away any time soon. The 911 has been the symbol of Porsche for way too long now.
 

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Those two little seats for midgets in the back
ROFL, everyone who drives a 911 knows they are not for children. They make a great glove box. REALLY big glove box.:)

The 991 has its engine 2.5" further forward if memory serves which takes the leverage of that lump a bit more towards the mid.......not a massive change but an adjustment for handling et al. The RSRs with this, increased wheelbase and the like responded well in their successes.
That detail is lost to many who might not catch it.

Not to sure about 911RSR success. I believe the handwriting is on the wall. The FeFi platform will become the racing platform in the next several years. Since PAG will now design the VAG Lambo, Audi, and PAG sports car platform from now on, this is the future of the high end cars and motor sports racing. The 911 is at its useful end and I have read will go out with a bang with the about to be released 991GT3RS. Some say there will be no 991.2GT3 but wait until the FeFi is launched. But who knows.
 

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Yes, that makes sense. I guess there are really two kinds of Porsche owners; those who are looking for the ultimate sports car experience, and those who enjoy the car simply for its prestige. This is not a criticism of the latter group, merely an observation.
Depends on what your meaning of the "ultimate sports car experience," from my observation, there are more Cayman/Boxster owners moving to the 911 then vice versa. The 987/981 is easier to drive, it's neutral handling, lighter weight gives you more confidence to drive fast. That might be a plus for some, might be boring for others. The 911, especially the older ones were harder to drive fast, requires skills and practice, people loves to learn how to drive that car, once master, it's rewarding. Boxster is like the GTR, point and go, a lot of electrics to save you and make you look good. That to some people is boring.

The other group definitely is growing fast. I see a lot of Cayenne turbos when I take my 997/981 in service. One guy with a Cayenne turbo asked me what my 997 was and why it was in a Porsche dealer for service. I told him it's a 911 (shaking my head). He said it looks different than the other 911's.
 

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The 911 is at its useful end and I have read will go out with a bang with the about to be released 991GT3RS. Some say there will be no 991.2GT3 but wait until the FeFi is launched. But who knows.
I agree with you but I'm surprised that you said it. Races are being won with mid-engine platforms (Le mans, F1), the last Porsche LeMans victory was with a mid-engine 911. The 960 design is a reflection of that reality. If the GT4 comes out with 400hp or above (10-20% chance IMHO), then Porsche is setting the path for the 911 departure. After all, the average age of a 911 buyer is around 59 right? They only have so much time left on this earth to buy another car. :)

I can see the Porsche 2020 lineup looking something like this:
1. 960
2. GT4 Flat 6 turbo at 450hp (but not called the turbo - like the Macan S) and a GT4 twin turbo at 475 HP.
3. 981 Cayman/Boxster GTS (Turbo flat-6) at 400hp
4. 981 (or a type 7 series designation) with a flat-4 turbo at 300hp

I don't like the turbos either but it is happening just like pdk and the electric brake. If you want a back seat, buy the Macan, Panamera, or Cayenne which will still be around along with a BMW 3 series competitor (I know...barf).

before you tell me I'm out to lunch.....I know that. I'm actually sipping some Panera soup. :)
 
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I agree with you but I'm surprised that you said it.
Oh sigh … I was speaking in terms of the racing platform, not street legal cars. The 911 racing days are near the end of the road. The 960 is the immediate future.

I did not want to be part of this discussion because then I would be doing exactly what I asked the OP NOT to do, inflame the thread. So I restricted my discussion purely to the racing cars. I was trying to allow you all to discuss your opinions on evolution without inflaming anything since, myself included, know our opinions or our prejudices.

So I'll just state what I read as coming up without trying to interject opinion in the body. My prediction will be at the end. Of course, rumors might be opinion as well.

Work on the next generation 991 is ongoing. As the flagship, 911 work leads the production cycles. Just look at the current production cycle. The 991 was launched in 2011, then the 981 Boxster in 2012, and finally the 981 Cayman. The technology trickles down. It always does. The same will be true in 2019 for the next generation. Current thought (which of course are rumor), are that the 991.2 will be smaller displacement turbos for the 991.2C2, 991.2C4, and 991.2C2S, and 991.2C4S. Some people think there will be not 991.2 GT3, which will be an acknowledgement of R&D moving to the 960. Additional, not building a 991.2GT3 allows the 991.1GT3RS to be build for a few months more and a GT4 to be built. Even my dealer says that the GT3 fires are far more involved than known. The limit has been reached for these engines.

Some Magazine reports have been ridiculous. They would never be a 530HP 991.2C2S. The current TT owners would have a fit. 415 - 430 is reasonable. I know I read somewhere that there would be no hybrids in the low end 991.2. Maybe for the TT and TTS. Who knows. However, for the next generation 911, expect hybrids.

I would never try to predict HP or cars in 2020. Way to far out and we do not know how the hybrid technology will trickle down from the 918.

I would expect a Baby Pajun to be built. I think I read somewhere that seven models is ideal for production. Cayenne, Macan, Cay/Box, 911, 960, Panny, Panny Jr. A 918 replacement will happen. There needs to be another Halo car, whatever it is.

Now, over the very long haul, to go along with your thought, I can see the 911 being phased out. But the model lineup will NOT evolve like your thinking nor the cars, necessarily, looking anything like you suggest. You have to consider the overall VAG plans. Read Porsche and Audi argue over R8, A8 platforms | Digital Trends The days of PAG doing its independent thing are over. It makes no financial sense for there to exist internal squabbles between divisions. This will not be like Chevy and Pontiac divisions of GM squabbling over who gets the more HP. Read http://www.motorauthority.com/news/...of-sports-cars-and-luxury-sedans-for-vw-group

By 2020 when PAG takes over the Lambo and Audi sports car design, all bets are off. It only makes sense that there be one designer but maybe one or more platforms and from that the entire lineup from the "entry level" to the "flagship" come from PAG, and of course appropriately priced based upon the power, technology, AND the badge going on the car. However, this redesign would not effect the next generation Porsche cars which are currently in the works.

There will be a next generation 911 and next generation Box/Cay. After that, all bets are off and the design lines can be merged into a single VAG, but PAG designed, future platform(s) for the sports car, badged appropriately. You are not going to get Bugatti or Lambo power at Porsche or Audi prices.

What we do not know, and this my speculation, is if the next 991/981 replacement cycle will be the normal 8 years, with the normal 4th year facelift, or the production cycle will be shortened to allow for the introduction of the merged sports car platform. So the next generation might be over in 2026 or 2021 or shorter. For all we know, the current 991/981 might end in 2016 and the next generation cars be launched early. Only time will tell. If you want more insight into this, you need to read z356. He has great insight and some of this is just my speculation over the merging of the lines.

So, I guess to answer the OP's original question, which I really do not want to be involved in. … sigh. ...

IMO, no, both answers are wrong. Both the box/cay and 911 incarnations as known today, will not exist in the early 2020s. The models will disappear, over time, as an integrated VAG, but PAG designed, platform(s) starts to dominate the VAG production. How will the new platform(s) looks? Who knows.

Whew … I know, a starling prediction. You know all the VAG siblings have got to get along and ranging from Bugatti, Lambo, Porsche, and Audi, there are POWERFUL players in there and who knows how this will play out? I think, PAG will take the lead and all this existing car stuff will go … bye bye. And the concept of Porsche continuing its current sports car lineups in a decade are all off base.
 

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I don't like the turbos either but it is happening just like pdk and the electric brake.
One other thing I forgot to mention are the CAFE standards and EU regulations.

I read and see a lot of presumptions that:

1. The US market dominates PAG thinking.

No, the US market is now the second largest to China and the EU is very important.

2. There is an assumption that as the years go by, power levels will increase.

This is not a good assumption. I don't mean not good because of oil disruptions, war and the like, but more like regulated out of existence.

For those that didn't live through the Oil Embargo and decline of American muscle and HP, just take a look at the difference between a Boss 429 Mustang (basically a NASCAR engine) and then a few years later the Mustang II. Look as the 454 Vettes or L88 Vettes and then the pathetic HP of the next generation Corvettes. If you read PAG literature, carbon footprints, EU regulations, and all government regulation play an important role.

Just look at racing. F1 is no longer anything near what it used to be with all the regulations and rules built in about energy use. It has become, at least to me, pathetic. The one thing Porsche never seemed to care about is CAFE standards. Production numbers are so low and the fines so low and they make so much profit they don't seem to care. Increase the price of the car and pay the fines.

Now IF the US government ever decided to really enforce the CAFE standards by making the fines realistic, game over. The current fines are $55 for every mpg over per car. This is, literally, chump change. That's less than the cost of say "leather covered A/C vents". Imagine if Congress changed that law to say $1,000 per mpg over or $10,000 per mpg over.

Game over.

This is not a doom and gloom prediction but just saying, its a good idea to pay attention to the markets (and the US is not the primary market) and the government regulations. I doubt any disruptions might come from the oil side but it could come from the regulation side and if so, the HP wars would be over.

If you want insight to the future, watch the regulations.

Everything goes in cycles. All life goes in cycles and none of us would want to see a Porsche II.
 

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At the moment, the 911 brand has too much value to Porsche for it to go away. The 911 might evolve to become more mid-engined like (the engine may slowly creep forward) or it may be come the grand touring model, but I doubt the 911 itself would be phased out. Not until people stop wanting 911s and that won't happen for a long time.
 

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... What we do not know, and this my speculation, is if the next 991/981 replacement cycle will be the normal 8 years, with the normal 4th year facelift, or the production cycle will be shortened to allow for the introduction of the merged sports car platform. So the next generation might be over in 2026 or 2021 or shorter. For all we know, the current 991/981 might end in 2016 and the next generation cars be launched early. Only time will tell.
This article is indicative of an extremely short turn around time between introduction and facelift, just about one year. Porsche 911 Targa facelift spied featuring mildly revised styling

That is a very short time frame. So I can see it possible that the current generation of 981/991 cars be cut short to allow for the next generation, with possibly hybrid technology to occur ... OR

the next generation 982/992 be cut short from the normal 8 year cycle so the VAG centric PAG designed sports car platform(s) can come to fruition quicker.

In any case, times are a changing. If you got a MT, NA Porsche, and the changes to smaller displacement turbos and mandatory PDK occur, then such changes might instantly stabilize used car prices in terms of depreciation (or not). It all depends upon what potential Porsche buyers will cherish - the traditional technology or the new technology.

But in either case, I cannot see the current sports car lineup (i.e., 981/991 -> 982/992) surviving more than one more generation because of the fiscal realities coming from the top of the VAG hierarchy.


Another trend that is being noticed is that there are currently a LOT of high priced TTS cars on lots. I noticed this starting this spring. Others have started noticing it of late. Go into a dealership and the TTS cars are on the floor or view the online inventories. Why? Not sure. However, there is some speculation that there is a push to get the buying public used to the idea of 200K 911s. Of course, that could be nonsense but wouldn't surprise me. The $155K specced PCNA auctioned GT3 cars are a deal.

If that were true, I could speculate that its to get those buyers used to $300K 960s. You know its coming. This upward trend in pricing would further separate the model lineups. I'm not sure what is going on here but its clear to me, everything is going up in price. Mandatory PDK will add $4K to the price of all cars and mandated backup cameras, despite costing $100, will cost you and me $1.5K because of the Porsche tax.

Expect everything to go up in price.
 
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