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Right now, you are spot on. That said ...

Anyhow, back to the principle of things ... I agree with chow in principle. I am old enough to be disdained with Silicon Valley mentality. While they infuriate me while being forced to use their products to work, it worries me even more when they want to cross-breed with products that were always traditionally planned well, projects executed in 5 years span and very, very thouroghly tested before being unleashed to unsuspecting public.

Reason being, there were no "updates" or "improvements" to cover for brainless planning and fundamental lack of understanding of laws of nature - the second law of thermodynamics to start with. Just my opinion, of course.

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Wow, gotta get me some of those rose-colored history glasses. The auto industry has a rich history of poorly planned and executed products that were crap. Remember the infamous Chevrolet Corvair? How about Chrysler K-cars? AMC Gremlin?

Lack of updates sure wasn't a bonus feature for them.

And like it not, all modern cars have extensive electronics, networks, and multiple computers inside. You may think cars designed by computer guys are scary, but I promise you that's not half as scary as computer security designed by car guys.

Car hacking is a real concern, but if anything Tesla is likely more secure than cars from the major manufacturers. They're all getting better, but the car companies have been very slow to secure their systems.



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Wow, gotta get me some of those rose-colored history glasses. The auto industry has a rich history of poorly planned and executed products that were crap. Remember the infamous Chevrolet Corvair? How about Chrysler K-cars? AMC Gremlin?
Point well taken. And, frankly, it furthers my reason for being so mad at the Silicon Valley's MO. There IS a history of that behavior and consequences of it are well known - so they can't really say "Oops, we really didn't know what will happen ...".


And like it not, all modern cars have extensive electronics, networks, and multiple computers inside. You may think cars designed by computer guys are scary, but I promise you that's not half as scary as computer security designed by car guys.
Understood. I will tell you something relating to the company I work for. We have full remote access to our automated production lines/cells. They are choke full of computing power, I know, believe me.

I can tell you this ... when "software issue" involved getting a person on the plane to Tokyo with disks in the cabin luggage (circa 1995) ... our average home factory runoff was more than double what it is now. Needless to say, % of the systems that were good after the key was turned at the customer and not needing any more work was a lot higher than it is today as well.

Finally, the ultimate problem is not even that - what I said above. The ultimate problem is that there is no person boarding the flight from California with software in their bag to come to Cincinnati and fix my car. They can access it from California. That is the main/ultimate problem IMO.



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Then why are these owners rebelling against it?


Tesla is starting to force new software updates on owners who have been resisting them ... some Tesla owners have been resisting newer software updates for a variety of different reasons. ...

some owners refused new software updates after Tesla issued an update that limited range and Supercharging in some older Model S vehicles “in order to protect the battery pack. Now it looks like those Tesla owners who have been resisting new software updates might not have much of a choice to accept them anymore.

Many of the features that Tesla claims would be deactivated if they don’t update are considered essential in the Tesla ownership experience.


That sure sounds like they are forcing the issue.
Chows, who are these owners? Can I get some names please? How about numbers? I have never met or spoken to or read anything from any Tesla owner stating that they did not want to accept updates. Tesla took away its first driving game (pole position) and replaced it with a better one. I guess maybe there are some pole position fans out there? :)

Let's get serious for a moment. There are updates that are related to performance and safety, such as not hosing a battery pack, or minimizing the odds of a battery fire, or improving your stopping distance. If owners were allowed to NOT accept updates then they wouldn't get these safety related updates. If that owners car catches fire or they cannot stop in time, whose fault is that?? You better believe these type of individuals would be the first ones to the court house to sue Tesla even though they rejected getting a software update that would have prevented the situation they ended up in.

Look at it another way Chows. You bought a Porsche, let's say there is a safety concern with braking and you get a letter from Porsche that there has been a recall you need to bring your Porsche into the dealership and getting a braking update. You throw the paper in the trash, thus refusing the update. You get into a wreck because of a braking failure that could have been prevented by the update. You sue Porsche, what do you think Porsche is going to say?

Take it one step further in your accident above you KILL someone else. Their family is going to sue you because you didn't get your braking update done by Porsche. Your inaction has caused the death of someone else. If these people refuse to get updates from Tesla and they cause an accident an kill someone, then what? Are you blaming Tesla or is it simply "OK" to kill others in the name of "freedom of choice" when it comes to automobile updates and recalls?

There's no leg to stand on here. If these owners don't want to accept updates they should buy a car that doesn't come with updates. It isn't like someone hoodwinked them into a buying a Tesla and never told them about software updates, heck it is in the paperwork that you sign with every Tesla sold and always has been in the paperwork since at least 2012 (maybe earlier I haven't checked further back).

People love to complain about something I guess...
 

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Chows, who are these owners? Can I get some names please? How about numbers?
I didn't write that. Your Tesla advocate blog wrote that. I assume somebody told him. No? He provides no sourcing.


What's truly at the heart of Tesla's push to get owners to update their software is unknown, but it could have something to do with the increased pressure the company is facing relating to its semi-autonomous Autopilot feature.

"some of it might be out of fear that any given Tesla software update could impair certain functions, like what happened last year when an OTA update reduced range and limited Supercharging in some older Tesla Model S sedans,"


From Electrik

"At first, it was mainly related to Tesla’s increase “nerfing” of Autopilot, meaning that they added speed limits, restricted types of roads, and added a lot of alerts to force drivers to keep their hands on the steering wheel. When these changes started to be reported, some owners decided to simply not accept newer updates when Tesla started pushing them. Others didn’t like some of Tesla’s user interface choices in newer updates and did the same."

I added the bold. No sourcing, the current state of journalism. So I guess you'll have to ask the EV blogs.

I understand the UI issue. You get used to something, just like this website, and Poof, its changed. Have you read all the complaints here because some hate the change? And so they walk away. That sounds exactly like what these people are complaining about. There is no need to change the UI.

The issue here is the mere fact that the EV blog reported it. Why would they report something negative?

As to NHTSA recalls, voluntary or otherwise, if they are software related. That's fine. If they are not recalls, then thats a problem.
 

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I don't know why I'm looking up Tesla complaints but:


I'm one of those people who harbor an intense dislike of the v9 UI.

I haven't updated since April last year. Almost nag free. I love it.



I'm with you, I'm done with software downgrades.

I've been doing the daily reject for a while now.

No more updates for me ...

Tesla has no right to downgrade functionality on a whim, unless governed by the ruling government.


and many more


I stopped updating my software after two terrible updates gave me restart bugs in 2018.

I don't want OTA updates.


There are many more complaints but here is good one

Normally, without an update, all existing features will not get any better and they all will stay the same as if they were not updated at all.

However, Tesla is different: it's punitive. It doesn't allow things to stay the same as if no updates were applied.


I view this exactly like Mac OS. Apple throws out updates yearly. There is no need for this. So many people throw their hands up and say no more. Old software stops running if you update. So just like that quote above, by not updating you stay where you are. No more new features. I'm good with that. And one day no more legacy support. I'm good with that too,

It's not "punitive". Its just accepting something not current. Now read the second sentence. It sounds like Tesla is penalizing these people. You tell me. Apple isn't penalizing me. Its just saying don't expect the latest browser or Photo's latest and greatest. Fine with me. Don't need it.
 

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Look at the UI issue simply. I don't like the current UI here at all. I can choose to use it or walk away. I have no choice, I can't reject it. However, I don't want to change the OS on my computer. So NO, I won't. Don't care what new features exist or new "emoticons". Those Tesla users are saying the same thing. You can keep your new UI. Rejected.

This is interesting.


Do you ever connect your car to WiFi? :oops:

I feel bad for you all. I have multiple computers, one doesn't get turned on all the time and when it does, it wants to update :poop: constantly. This is all nonsense. I have no time for this. I just want to get on, do my task, and get off. But NO, it wants to update five things.?

The mass public will not accept this. Early adopters will (although some are complaining). But not the masses. My wife looks at those updates and wants to throw the computer out the window.
 

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Look at the UI issue simply. I don't like the current UI here at all. I can choose to use it or walk away. I have no choice, I can't reject it. However, I don't want to change the OS on my computer. So NO, I won't. Don't care what new features exist or new "emoticons". Those Tesla users are saying the same thing. You can keep your new UI. Rejected.

This is interesting.


Do you ever connect your car to WiFi? :oops:

I feel bad for you all. I have multiple computers, one doesn't get turned on all the time and when it does, it wants to update :poop: constantly. This is all nonsense. I have no time for this. I just want to get on, do my task, and get off. But NO, it wants to update five things.?

The mass public will not accept this. Early adopters will (although some are complaining). But not the masses. My wife looks at those updates and wants to throw the computer out the window.
You aren't married to my wife's sister are you? :rolleyes:
 
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Chows,
There are reasons to update the UI. Better / more accurate information provided by the UI and the reduction of task time and eyes away from the road. For example, originally when the Model 3 came out making a phone call was not as easy as it is now, it required more interaction with the screen, now you don't have to have any (if you use voice commands) or you have less if you choose to use the screen. This is an improvement and one that de-clutters the interface and in a small way makes the car safer to use as focus can be back on the road as opposed to the screen. This is no different from traditional car manufacturers using human factors design to alter interface designs for the better when models are updated. Tesla can simply do it faster and on an existing car, whereas traditional car makers it requires a whole new car typically.

The other item I see people complaining about is that now with autopilot it tracks more conditions than it did previously and requires human interaction (resting hand on bottom of steering wheel for example) to verify that the human is paying attention. In the past this wasn't the case and people could climb in the back seat and let the car drive which was against what Tesla was telling people. After a couple of deaths happened from inattentive drivers on autopilot Tesla introduced additional safety measures. Not because the NHTSA told them to, not because there was a recall, but because it was the right thing to do until such time that these types of verifications are no longer necessary. But again, some humans would rather put other humans at risk by doing things they are not supposed to be doing just because the early versions of the system didn't prevent them from doing so.

And yes shame on the EV source for publishing an "article" with so few facts but hopefully they did so to draw attention to these complainers and expose their complaints for the mostly self-centered ego trips that they are.

One exception is that there have been instances where a car receives a notification that an upgrade is ready to be installed and when the user tries to install it fails and so they get the message again the next day. If it fails a couple of times then take it to your local Tesla service center and they will fix it for you. Is that a valid complaint? Sure, it is a major inconvenience? probably not. It also happens to very small % of owners and I haven't heard of anyone having the issue for awhile now. I had it happen once in 3 years of ownership, my service center says it does happen but it is rare. So again, valid complaint, but there is a solution and you can get back on your way, you don't have to "give up" on any future updates.

BTW I should point out that SOME UI improvements on the Model 3 have been at the suggestion of Model 3 owners that have complained about earlier versions, offered potential solutions and Tesla listened and implemented. How many other companies do that? Shouldn't you be responsive to your customers when they have a product improvement idea?
 

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There are reasons to update the UI.
I have no horse in this race. You wanted names/numbers of those complaining. It took a few minutes to find many complaints. Sure, people love to whine.

Companies always have their reasons to force updates. That doesn't mean the customer likes or wants it. FIOS just changed their UI for seeing streaming content. I hate it. Its slower. I'm sure they have their reasons too. That doesn't mean I wanted it or they will change it back because I don't like it. But irritate me enough and I can walk away.

Every time a new feature is added to sw, it becomes bloated. Just look at any MS office product. 95% of the features wont be used by 95% of the users. Bloat.

Better / more accurate information provided by the UI and the reduction of task time and eyes away from the road. For example, originally when the Model 3 came out making a phone call was not as easy as it is now, it required more interaction with the screen,
Thats the problem - the Screen. I see lately to get to options, and Porsche is just as bad here, options are buried deep in screens. There are way too many screens and layers. That is exactly the problem. Meanwhile, for years, I can just push a button on the steering wheel for at least a decade to make a call. Want PASM on? Push a button. Turn off PSE? Push a button. Screens - that is exactly the problem. They say it take "n" number of times to learn something. Push the button enough times and your hand falls to the switch. Find it in a screen? C'mon. I'm sure children born today know nothing but screens. That's too bad for them.

The other item I see people complaining about is that now with autopilot it tracks more conditions than it did previously and requires human interaction (resting hand on bottom of steering wheel for example) to verify that the human is paying attention. In the past this wasn't the case and people could climb in the back seat and let the car drive which was against what Tesla was telling people. After a couple of deaths happened from inattentive drivers on autopilot Tesla introduced additional safety measures. Not because the NHTSA told them to, not because there was a recall, but because it was the right thing to do until such time that these types of verifications are no longer necessary. But again, some humans would rather put other humans at risk by doing things they are not supposed to be doing just because the early versions of the system didn't prevent them from doing so.
I got no problem with safety enhancements but I have to question why didn't the Tesla engineers think of that in the first place? They did no studies and figure out people are lazy? That they would abuse the system?

Hmm And then they restrict functionality that already existed. And they wonder why customers are upset? Why didn't they study the human factor here first before pushing out the product (or if they did, why did they go ahead anyway). You can't blame the customers here for a problem with the product.

If it fails a couple of times then take it to your local Tesla service center and they will fix it for you. Is that a valid complaint? Sure, it is a major inconvenience? probably not.
Yes, it is a major hassle, dependent upon where you live. I'm fairly lucky having maybe four Porsche dealers within an hour. In fact, I got just about every car brand dealer possible within an hour. Many people do not have that luxury. You know there are many people three or more hours from dealers. They do the work themselves or go once a year or to an indy shop.

The reasons for so many dealers so close is "the big city". The downside to the "big city" is traffic. When do you go? After work? How bad is traffic? Do you leave it overnight and get a loaner car? Do you have to take time off? You know this is a hassle. You must also know many people will just blow it off. Not doing it.

Tesla sold ~5M cars in the last decade. I don't know how many have survived. There are more than 280M cars on the road. The average age is pushing 12 years. Think about that. The average age of a car in the USA is about 12 years. Despite "cash for clunkers", that number keeps growing. Part of that could be because people can't afford to buy new ones and part because they are built better. But that number is still staggering. In 1995 it was 8.5. In 1970 it was 5.6 In 50 years, the average age of the car on the road has doubled. I remember when people traded up every three years because the cars rusted through or fell apart and car loans were three years, today they are pushing 7 years.

Extrapolate your problem with software updates. If the dream of the "green" crowd ever became reality and all those 280M cars were rolling smartphones, do you really think the public would put up with being forced to go to the dealer for an update? Or would they ignore it?

How does this scale up? Has Tesla thought this through like they thought through how people would react once functionality was restricted?

BTW I should point out that SOME UI improvements on the Model 3 have been at the suggestion of Model 3 owners that have complained about earlier versions, offered potential solutions and Tesla listened and implemented. How many other companies do that? Shouldn't you be responsive to your customers when they have a product improvement idea?
Sure, companies should respond. Porsche has. They listened to their buyers and add the MT to the GT3. And it appears now are adding PDK to the GT4? I haven't paid too much attention to the GT4. Porsche seems to listen.
 

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Smart Phone cars.

The average age of a car today on the road in the USA is 12 years. I assume the computing done in Tesla is much more than done in ICE cars.

Who has a 12 year old PC in their house? Anyone here? Who got a 2008 PC? If so, how's it working out? You running the latest software? If its an apple, you running 64 bits apps? (I know that answer and its no). How's it handling the "bloat" from "current" software apps? Can the CPU handle the processing load?

But that's just average. That means many cars are 20 years old. I see new cars, of course, but lots of 1990s Toyotas and Hondas. Lots of them. Lots of 986 Boxsters too in the summer. Anybody running a 1999 PC?

How will any of this scale? Or does Tesla just expect everyone to go buy a new smart phone every two years like Apple?

Big mistake. And Porsche is not immune to this either. Porsche's Classic program calls for ensuring parts are available starting 10 years after the model goes out of production. So for the 987/997 that would be 2022. Let's see if they ensure all the chips used in the 987/997 will be available. Do the suppliers even make the chips anymore?

I understand young people today are born with iPhones in their hands. I get all that. That doesn't mean any of this scales.
 

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Chows, you make the argument for Tesla's style of vertical integration for electronics as opposed to using 3rd party outsourcing like the rest of the automotive industry. Tesla makes it in house so they can keep an endless supply or make more should they need to. Suppliers won't do that, once it is gone, it is gone and they won't tool up to make more.

Not that it matters much, but Tesla cars have a defined amount of memory and Elon has said that in the future people will have to choose what apps they want on their car loaded into memory but they won't be able to have the entire app catalog all at once, which is really no different than your phone or PC. BTW I do have a couple of PCs older than 2008, one is a laptop, both still functioning fine but neither is a primary machine.

On other topics, did you see this: Study: U.S. Fossil Fuel Subsidies Exceed Pentagon Spending
 

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Chows, you make the argument for Tesla's style of vertical integration for electronics as opposed to using 3rd party outsourcing like the rest of the automotive industry. Tesla makes it in house so they can keep an endless supply or make more should they need to. Suppliers won't do that, once it is gone, it is gone and they won't tool up to make more.
I don't understand what you mean by this. I was arguing that Tesla didn't do human studies? Didn't they figure out people would abuse the system? Or arguing that driving around in a 12 year old computer would be bad news.

Regarding in house vs 3rd party, that's like PCs vs Macs. PCs used 3rd party. Plug and play any card, any peripheral vs Macs being mostly Apple. Which PC market has succeeded and which receded. What product does Apple put the research in (phones and iPads) vs Max Pros and iMacs?

Maybe I don't understand your point here. Tesla put out a product. Users abused it. Why didn't Tesla think that humans are humans and do human things?

Tesla makes its own chips? OK you think they will make 12 year old chips? Are they making 2008 chips? If so, are they profitable in doing so? Are they keeping old chip making machines around? For how long? Technology only goes forward. Moores Law still applies for now. It wont be profitable (well not like they make a profit now anyway). 2008 was the early dual core Intels. Sure, Tesla is going to keep around machines to make 12 year old chips. I don't believe it.

I predict it would be exactly like Macs. NO support for you after a cutoff date. Computer companies can't afford to keep old stuff around. They dump it. They only go to the future. It will be just like Apple dumping their routers. So sorry, no more routers for you. Or their Time Machine backups. Or their stand alone monitors. So sorry, no longer supported.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice ... etc etc etc. I wouldn't hold my breath on them supporting old hw or software. There is no money in it.

Forget about "Rolling Stone", far left interpreting someone elses work. Go to the source material from the IMF linked in the report Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates. Rolling Stone, is spinning it. In reality China is three times as large in subsidies. Coal is 44% of subsidies. These middle man reports just spin what they want their readers to see.

A working paper from the abstract thinks if there were not subsidies, fuel prices would rise and CO2 levels go down. I can believe that. So what? Eliminate the subsidies. Im good with that. Let the free market economy do its thing. I am all for eliminating all subsidies unless a national emergency.
 

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Chows I wasn't talking about the abuse of self driving systems and I don't think Tesla or any manufacturer is going to think up all of the abuses that could occur no matter how many planning meetings they have. The salient point is that Tesla adapted quickly and updated quickly to remove the abuse. Other manufacturers cannot do this because their systems are mostly mechanical or at a minimum you have to visit your dealer service center to have something reprogrammed. If someone were abusing something in a 2012 Porsche how would Porsche stop it? People have complained that Tesla put a stop to their abuse, oh well, people like to complain.

Now on to chips. Sure, no one likes making 12 year old chips, so you make a bunch and let them sit on the shelf until they are gone. By Tesla making their own chips, particularly their AI and self driving chips they don't have to rely on 3rd parties and the needs of those 3rd parties, Tesla can control how many are made and how many are on the shelf, and it allows them to innovate faster. They tried using chips from Nvidia but Nvidia wasn't advancing the technology fast enough for Tesla so Tesla made their own. It is really a fascinating story you should read up about it. One item you are forgetting when it comes to chips is that over time hardware is replaced by software. No one builds a 1984 Asteroids machine using 1984 style chips anymore, we simply use newer chips that can emulate the routines needed to make the older software run. This is what will happen in the future of cars whose chips are no longer made, emulators will take their place.

Last, but not least, I wasn't tossing out the Rolling Stone article for pure accuracy, only to show that subsidies in the oil and gas industry remain very high and you correctly pointed out that if you are going to argue against subsidies for EVs you should be arguing against them for oil and gas too, particularly since the oil and gas industry is mature and really doesn't need them anymore...
 

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Chows I wasn't talking about the abuse of self driving systems and I don't think Tesla or any manufacturer is going to think up all of the abuses that could occur no matter how many planning meetings they have. The salient point is that Tesla adapted quickly and updated quickly to remove the abuse. Other manufacturers cannot do this because their systems are mostly mechanical or at a minimum you have to visit your dealer service center to have something reprogrammed. If someone were abusing something in a 2012 Porsche how would Porsche stop it? People have complained that Tesla put a stop to their abuse, oh well, people like to complain.

Now on to chips. Sure, no one likes making 12 year old chips, so you make a bunch and let them sit on the shelf until they are gone. By Tesla making their own chips, particularly their AI and self driving chips they don't have to rely on 3rd parties and the needs of those 3rd parties, Tesla can control how many are made and how many are on the shelf, and it allows them to innovate faster. They tried using chips from Nvidia but Nvidia wasn't advancing the technology fast enough for Tesla so Tesla made their own. It is really a fascinating story you should read up about it. One item you are forgetting when it comes to chips is that over time hardware is replaced by software. No one builds a 1984 Asteroids machine using 1984 style chips anymore, we simply use newer chips that can emulate the routines needed to make the older software run. This is what will happen in the future of cars whose chips are no longer made, emulators will take their place.

Last, but not least, I wasn't tossing out the Rolling Stone article for pure accuracy, only to show that subsidies in the oil and gas industry remain very high and you correctly pointed out that if you are going to argue against subsidies for EVs you should be arguing against them for oil and gas too, particularly since the oil and gas industry is mature and really doesn't need them anymore...
Subsidies should go away unless for emergencies. But I'm not King for the Day so it won't happen and I doubt an IMF Working Paper will have much impact on Congress and laws.

So chips and supply chains. This is interesting. I see the SEC filing and risks. Interesting items in there, far too many to go over and I'm sure many risks are the same for lots of companies but a highlight.

Our products contain thousands of purchased parts that we source globally from hundreds of direct suppliers ... Furthermore, unexpected changes in ..., health epidemics, could also affect these suppliers’ ability to deliver components to us on a timely basis.

:oops: Uh oh. Maybe not such a good idea to be getting anything from China?
 

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There's always Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory New York etc. etc. BTW I recently got a view into Honda's worldwide factories, did you know the ones in Marysville, OH are on par with those in Japan in terms of number of employees and production? Also Honda only owns a % of their factory in China and the same is true in Vietnam, I'm assuming the government of those countries owns the other %. Tesla is unique in China in that it owns the whole thing, of course any time a communist regime wants to take something I'm assuming they will just take it... :)
 

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Well, Well, Well, I should have known better than to just read what an EV blog says. Look here.Its beginning ...


"Nothing motivates a new car buyer to purchase an electric car more than the knowledge that an existing tax subsidy is about to be reduced. That's what happened to EV sales in The Netherlands in the second half of 2019, and especially the month of December. ... the stringent European regulations kick in starting January 1, 2020. You can be fairly certain that December 2019 was Tesla’s high water mark in The Netherlands - and by extension, probably in all of Europe too. ... The third item of note in the December sales number for The Netherlands is that the Tesla Model X and S are nowhere to be seen."

Funny how the EV blogs don't mention where the boost in sales comes from. :unsure: And more


Ignore his predictions, just the data

"I expect a Q4 profit. However, the Q4 profit won’t be nearly enough to cover the loss over the first three quarters. So, write it down: 2019 will be Tesla’s 10th consecutive year of losing money since going public." ?

"That has to be a record" ?

"2019 saw a dramatic decline in sales of the Model S and Model X, despite continuing price cuts and declines in the ASPs of those cars. 2020 will be worse as more luxury EV competitors arrive." ?

"Tesla will achieve record Q4 deliveries thanks to an impending major change to tax laws in The Netherlands, where Tesla delivered 16,289 Model 3 cars during the quarter."

Now we understand. No more bribes? Uh oh ? So what is this Netherlands Tax Incentive? Read


"BiK for BEVs:
  • 2018: 4%
  • 2019: 4% up to a maximum of €50,000 (22% for the amount above)
  • 2020: 8% up to a maximum of €45,000 (22% for the amount above)
  • 2021: 12% up to a maximum of €40,000 (22% for the amount above) ...
Higher BiK means that the popular company car — used by employees but also for private purposes — will be gradually taxed higher."

But wait, the EV blog is whining about it too!


"Tesla’s sales are surging in the country [Netherlands] ahead of the end of an EV incentive. ... What could partly explain the surge in demand for the Model S is that it is a popular company car due to the significant tax break on the Benefit-in-kind (or BIK) ending for vehicles that cost more than €50,000, which is the case for Model S and Model X. ... We have seen similar situations happen with the end of EV incentives before. The best examples being Denmark and Hong Kong which used to be two of Tesla’s best markets. But now they dropped down to be some of the worst markets in terms of sales since they killed their incentives. ... We expect a similar albeit not as drastic situation in the US with the likely end of the federal tax credit"

Didn't the US Tax credit end 1/1/20? How much will the drop in US sales been from 4 QTR,19 to 1 QTR,20? Uh oh.

He then jumps to Norway sales. Uh oh. Looks poor. You need to go to the Norway site to see the graph. Norway Model 3 registrations.

Tesla Registration Stats

March 19, 5,315
June 19, 3,012
Sept 19, 2,341
Dec 19, 1,251

Which brings us to those pesky EU carrots and sticks. Behind a paywall except for the summary


This we know. 1/1/20 the Draconian fines kick in. Here's the killer line.

"there's not enough demand for all the new BEVs and PHEVs, manufacturers could sell them below the real cost of production just to avoid the penalties."

Why is this important? What did CinciOH say?



Sometimes things aren't always as they seem? Were these cars bought simply because foreign and US incentives to buy them end or where ending?

Well well well. From above. Predictions on Tesla EU sales

This is Norway Tesla Registration Stats

March 19, 5,315
June 19, 3,012
Sept 19, 2,341
Dec 19, 1,251

Today

Feb, 20, 85 :eek::eek::oops::oops::oops::oops:


Sales fell right off the cliff, 92% drop. Once the bribes were ended, sales ended. Wow.
 
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