I agree with SJFoster. If any car is a good deal at any given time is really based on what else is out there at the time you are buying. Seasonality plays a part too. What is the HARDEST thing to do is compare all the cars that are on the market to figure out what might be the “best deal” at the time.
I am a car lover, but I also am a data analytics professional, so I have a hard time putting too much credence using hearsay and opinions to make decisions about anything in general. It is a curse, because I can tend to over analyze what for most people is an emotionally driven decision that they have already made, that they then try to find a way to rationalize the reason to go through with it. If you are one of those people, just skip to the last line in my comments. But if you want to really understand comparative values when looking at Porsche products, I hope these tips can help.
If you are in the market for a Porsche, you know Porsche cars have a base price for a particular model that then can be so exquisitely optioned as to add 10%, 20%, 30% and more to that base price. Because of these variables, comparing similar years, models and mileage cars to each other is almost impossible. That is before you even begin to take into consideration the service histories, Carfax and AutoCheck reports.
So how can you objectively get a better handle on competitive value between several variously optioned cars at a given moment in time? Book values are not a great resource, so use them with caution. Actual sales reports on Bring a Trailer can be more helpful to see what is selling and general pricing trends to determine if you even want to enter the market or not. If prices are going up or falling rapidly, you may want to wait or jump in depending on the direction they are going, but above all you have to make sure you are comparing apples to apples, especially when cars that are loaded with coveted options are in the mix. My suggestions on where to start:
There is a site called Vinanalytics.com that will allow you to get a summary build sheet for free that shows all the installed options on a car based on the VIN number. It also shows what the full retail price was when it was produced. You can also pay $9.99 for a detailed window sticker with base price and cost of all added options. Great to compare value added by options.
When shopping, it is not likely you will find two cars equipped exactly the same. If the model, miles and general condition are similar (you are not comparing pristine versus branded title cars) you just need to look at the original list price of each car from Vinanalytics versus the used asking price. Calculate how much less the selling price is from original price to get the depreciation percent for each car. Even if both cars were asking the same used car price, if one is showing 20% less than original price and the other is 30% less than original price, the second car would initially be a better raw value for the money, regardless of the options on each car (other things to still consider, but this gives you a baseline). What extra equipment was on each car does not matter for this down and dirty price comparison, as using this method we are just looking at the total savings from what each car sold for when new.
Add value to the car if:
- It has a complete service history, clean title and no reported accidents reported in Carfax (or documented service bills to affirm oil changes and scheduled maintenance was performed). Hard to quantify a dollar value, but having documentation puts another plus check mark in the buying decision.
- It is a Certified Pre-Owned from a Porsche dealer (probably worth ~$2K). Many people don’t like insurance and are willing to take a risk on a well-maintained car with a good PPI, but CPO can have significant value if you need it. I recommend you do a PPI even if it has CPO though.
- Major scheduled maintenance was recently performed (such as 40K/80K mile service which can cost ~$2K, and can still be needed based on age if car is low mileage and over 4 years old).
- Has new tires (~$1000 to $1500).
- Has a new battery ($200 DIY-$700 Dealer).
- Has new brakes/rotors (can be up to $1k DIY or $3k Dealer).
- Known bugs have already been repaired (such as crazed headlights, warped doors, etc). $1200-$1900 minimum repair costs to correct these.
If all the objective check boxes here are met and you valued these items accordingly in you comparison, you can feel good that you at least made a buying decision that was not based on a gut feeling that you might regret after the bloom is off the rose.
Or, of course you can just fall in love and take your chances.
